Remember this famous mantra from Bill Clinton’s 1992 election campaign? I was in the states during that final month of the campaign and whenever the TV was turned on this was the cry from the electorate. I dare say that if there was an election in the UK in 2009 that would be the tag line from the opposition parties. Perhaps the cry should be:
“ It’s Confidence Stupid”.
What’s different in the economic landscape today compared to two years ago, the missing factor is confidence and without it we are lost. Confidence is the magic ingredient in so many things, love, careers being two good examples. Let’s look at Richard Branson, arguably Britain’s leading business person. Is he as clever as a chap with two heads? Although he doubtless has an IQ that is above average, I could probably nip to the back of the office and drag up two people at random that would out score dear old beardy in any given IQ test. Does he have innovative business ideas, mmmm airlines, mobile phones and fizzy pop had rather been done to death before he came and scrawled ‘Virgin’ across them. No, what separates him from the dull but worthy Arthur Pewty chap at the back of the office with an IQ pushing 200 and a great line in trousers made from man made fabrics is confidence. The confidence that 25 years ago lead him to say,
“Let’s lease some planes and start an airline”.
In matters emotional, the guys (or girls) with all the luck are not necessarily the good looking ones, they are the ones with the confidence to ask someone out on a date, knowing that the likely outcome is that they’ll agree to the date. Our dear friend Arthur with the large IQ isn’t getting a date because he’s never asked, as in his mind they would say no in any case.
January 2007 the world was still brimming with confidence, confidence that we could make the payments on that car loan, confidence that we could extend the mortgage and cover the increased payments, confidence that we would be in gainful employment in 6 months time.
Where has all that gone? It went out of the window when in August 2007 BNP Paribas decided that so many people in the US were not making their mortgage payments that that they could not place a value on the bonds that were at the far end of BillyBob and Emma-Lou’s mortgage payments. It had all got too much as their miniscule brains could not read the smaller print on the mortgage contract that said that the 2% interest rate was just for the first 6 months.
Once you can’t put a value on something it becomes effectively worthless thus all the banks’ balance sheets were full of worthless assets. A financial instrument just like your car or house has no intrinsic value; they are worth what somebody else will pay for them. Now, the banks are arguably architects of their own misfortune. The rather splendid idea of packaging up mortgage debts into bonds that you sell on to get the debt off your balance sheet is rather negated if you then nip out and buy in the same steaming piles that have been put together by other banks. That’s just selling something you knew exactly how risky it was (you lent them the money) and buying something that you’re not sure about.
So, that’s how we got here. The banks now need to rebuild their balance sheets. This involves lending much less to businesses and Joe Public and being far pickier over who they lend it to. I once read that for every dollar a bank loses their lending is reduced by 10 dollars. With the sort of losses that banks are announcing you don’t have to have the 200 IQ of our friend Pewty at the back of the office to see that there will be a massive shortfall between cash required and cash supplied.
This, as everybody knows is leading to mass layoffs in the banking and all other industries.
The way these layoffs are undertaken by businesses doesn’t help that magic confidence ingredient that the economy requires. A business seems to perform layoffs using the following timetable of events:-
1. Make an announcement that due to prevailing economic circumstances head count will be reduced by 15%. Consultation with workers’ representatives will take place and further announcements will be made in 4 weeks.
2. 100% of the employees clamp their wallets shut for the next 4 weeks as it could be them, 85% will have done this for no good reason as it’s not going to be them but just in case the wallet stays firmly shut.
3. Four weeks later the unlucky 15% will be served with their redundancy, they are likely to have 3 months notice, 3 months of being in the office/factory clearly sucking confidence away. The 85% that are left don’t particularly feel like booking a holiday and flaunting in front of the unlucky 15%.
You can see from the above sequence of events that 100% of the people in a company reduce their spending dramatically for a 4 month period thus causing a ripple effect throughout the economy.
Wouldn’t it be better to tap the unfortunate 15% on the shoulder one Monday morning give them a cheque and wish them all the best for the future rather than the protracted 4 month process outlined above ? It’s going to be horrible for them but it’s not going to be less horrible in 4 months time.
It’s quick, clean and all over in a day and the 85% can breathe a sigh of relief and get down to Currys for that flat screen telly, thus keeping the staff at Currys nipping round to Starbucks for a 3 quid cup of coffee flavoured froth and the economy slowly starts to get up off its knees!